Ray tracing is a technology that NVIDIA is currently pushing hard, the first triple-A game that will require a Ray Tracing graphics card will not be coming out anytime soon. According to NVIDIA’s Morgan McGuire, the first triple-A game that will not run on non-Ray Tracing GPUs will be released in 2023.

In 2024, McGuire believes that a truly hybrid ray tracing/rasterizing system will be implemented in video-games. This hybrid solution will offer area light shadows, ambient occlusion, glossy reflections, rays for data structures, ray traced audio, perfect particle collisions and perfect AI visibility.

McGuire predicts that this hybrid solution will be used until 2034 as game developers will be then be able to move to a truly Path Tracing solution/system. This means that, if everything goes according to McGuire’s predictions, we’ll have full path tracing triple-A games in 2035.
It will be really interesting to see whether we’ll get a triple-A game that will require a ray tracing GPU in 2023. After all, both the next Playstation and Xbox consoles will be out by then and we already know that both of them will support hardware-accelerated ray tracing effects.

NVIDIA’s Morgan McGuire: “First triple-A game to require a ray tracing GPU will be released in 2023”