Will DRAM prices go down in 2019? The chatter indicates it, recent capacity ramps by Micron Technology and the planned kick-off of commercial production by China-based Fujian Jin Hua Integrated Circuit and Innotron Memory (previously known as Hefei ChangXin) could lead to oversupply for the memory in 2019.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix would be forced to overhaul their current profit-oriented business strategy as both firms believe that the booming memory market, which has continued for 2-3 years, is likely to be over by the end of 2018, according to a Korea-based Digital Times report:
Although Samsung and SK Hynix both stated, at their latest investors conferences, respectively, that they will continue to ramp up capacities for memory chips, the aggressive moves by rival companies have made the two companies hesitate, said the report. Samsung has seen its share in the DRAM market continue to dive after hitting a high of 50.2% in the third quarter of 2016 as rivals including Micron have jacked up their revenues and profits. Notably, Micron has ramped up its operating margin to as high as 50% so far in 2018 compared to 20% at the end of 2016. Additionally, Samsung saw its share in the market drop to 44.4% in the first quarter of 2018, while Micron managed to ramp up its share to 23.1%, according to IHS Markit.
The global DRAM market is expected to reach a peak of US$104 billion in 2018, before contracting by 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, in 2019 and 2020, according to an industry estimate. Meanwhile, automotive applications will gradually replace the smartphone sector to become the largest market for memory chips. Meanwhile, Micron is gearing up to expand production of 10nm-class DRAM chips at its Taiwan-based fabs between 2018 and 2019.
Micron's factory site in Taoyuan, northern Taiwan will enter 1Xnm chip production in the second half of 2018 and will migrate to 1Ynm process node at the end of the year. Additionally, Micron's factory site in Taichung, central Taiwan will transition to a newer 1Znm process in the second half of 2019 after already kicking off volume production of 1Xnm products. In China, Jin Hua's 12-inch fab is expected to enter trial production of 20 or 30nm DRAM chips in September. China's recent move to protect its own memory industry by imposing partial sales ban on Micron's products in China could also affect the future development of the industry. Having unveiled its engineering samples of 19nm 8Gb DDR4 products recently, Innotron is also expected to begin mass production for the chip in the first half of 2019.
In response to mounting competition, Samsung plans to kick off volume production of its 10nm LPDDR 5 chips at its fab in Pyeongtaek in 2019 and start its wafer foundry business in 2020 using a 3nm process. SK Hynix is expected to complete its development of LPDDR 5 chips in early 2019.
